Horizons Live: Strait talking | Webinar replay

This month’s Horizons Live explored three distinct scenarios for the end of the Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has eased immediate escalation risk in the Middle East, but a durable peace remains elusive. With the Strait of Hormuz still at risk of prolonged closure, the world’s most critical energy shipping chokepoint has become the single most important uncertainty shaping global supply, demand and pricing.

In response, in this month's Horizons report, we set three distinct scenarios, Quick Peace, Summer Settlement and Extended Disruption, each mapping different timelines for reopening the Strait and the resulting impacts across oil, gas, LNG and the global economy.

Horizons Live brought together the report authors to unpack the scenario outcomes and answer your questions in an insightful Q&A session. Missed it? Fill in the form at the top of the page to catch the replay. 

Key themes included:

• Three scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz: how Quick Peace, Summer Settlement and Extended Disruption reshape timelines for recovery and global market balance
• Oil market implications: from rapid price normalisation under reopening scenarios to extreme inventory depletion and potential price spikes in a prolonged closure
• Global LNG and gas impacts: supply losses, project delays and the risk of structural market reshaping depending on conflict duration
• Macroeconomic fallout: how energy price shocks transmit into recession risk, regional divergence and long-term demand destruction
• Energy security and geopolitics: what sustained disruption means for importing economies, diversification strategies and future system resilience

Fill in the form at the top of the page to access this webinar on demand.