Global Oil Supply 10-year investment horizon outlook 2025

Global liquids production capacity increases from 112 million b/d in 2025 to a plateau of 117 million b/d between 2031 to 2035, before entering decline. Non-OPEC supply contributes just over 65% of the overall increase, but rolls over to decline from 2034, while OPEC capacity increases steadily through the mid-2030s. In this update, overall revisions are weighted to the downside, averaging 0.15 million b/d over the period to 2035. Upstream spend is expected to decline year-on-year in 2025, for the first time since 2020, due to oil market volatility. But oil demand remains resilient, with energy security and affordability key aspects in the transition to low-carbon energy. As a result, new projects, increased recovery at existing fields and exploration will all be required to meet our demand outlook and counter production declines.